Министр энергетики Наташа Пилидис рассказала членам парламентского комитета по энергетике о планах своего ведомства по разведке углеводородов, буровым работам и комплексному планированию добычи природного газа.
По ее словам, буровая деятельность в ИЭЗ Кипра запланирована на вторую половину 2021 года. Министр отметила, что это положительное решение для Кипра, так как многие крупные компании по всему миру отказались от планов по разведке.
«Тот факт, что программа продолжается в 2021 году и начинается обсуждение деталей, это очень хорошо для нас», — сказала она. Однако Пилидис добавила, что пандемия продолжает влиять на процессы во всем мире и это необходимо принимать во внимание. Она выразила надежду, что во второй половине этого года условия позволят продолжить исследовательскую деятельность.
Отвечая на вопросы парламентариев, она сказала, что перенос начала бурения с 2020 года не повлиял на график работ. Как и было запланировано ранее, Кипр сможет получить свой первый природный газ в 2025-2026 годах. На данном этапе, по ее словам, никаких задержек с этим нет. «Если все будет хорошо с точки зрения пандемии, мы надеемся придерживаться этих графиков», — сказала Пилидис.
Источник: cyprus-mail.com
In 2020, for all kinds of businesses and organisations around the world working remotely became the new normal that they will continue to adapt to in 2021. Leaders have to rethink how their organisations operate, how staff are connected and supervised, whether the business model is still sustainable or their office space appropriate, etc. One of the implications is embracing the “anywhere operations” model, i.e. for the business to be accessed, delivered and enabled anywhere, which is now key to survival. In this model, customers, professionals, and partners all operate in physically remote and digital-driven, cloud-based environments.
This does not always mean cancelling physical space altogether, but it is being reconsidered. In the "new-normal" office space, social distancing protocols will have to be strictly upheld. This will change the design, e.g. more contactless and surveillance technologies; the work schedule, e.g. more flexibility to avoid overcrowding; the office non-work routine, e.g. no more buffet catering; and so on.
At the same time, some companies are abandoning offices altogether, having realised that their teams may as well work remotely, and redirecting the money into a more powerful IT infrastructure instead. New applications for the freed-up space will need to be developed, which will lead to major reshuffle on the real estate market.
Then, of course, there is a home office, another pandemic-driven change in how people work and live. With employees working from home, advantages such as having a nice office space or free lunches are not relevant anymore. New types of support are required, such as having the right office equipment, or flexible schedule to accommodate childcare, and new types of administration, such as powerful and secure IT systems, or enhanced remote monitoring.
CHANGE OF PRIORITIES
The pandemic-caused changes in how we work are definitely broader than just going remote. With less socialising and fewer leisure activities to engage in, for many, Covid-19 has triggered reassessment of work-life balance and, most importantly, the meaning of what they do.
Young (but not only) professionals across countries and industries are switching companies and sectors, retraining, or becoming entrepreneurs. There is a trend to have more purpose and meaning in a job, and companies that can offer neither will struggle to attract talent and customers. Another increasingly important factor brought to light during the pandemic is whether a company is aware of the environmental impact of its activities and works to make those more sustainable.
Employees as well as clients are looking at organisations to contribute to the required changes in society. As a result, ethical leadership and embracing the corporate social responsibility policies will come to the forefront. It is hard to say whether these changes will touch Cyprus, because just a couple of years ago researchers studying CSR applications in Cyprus noted that “Cypriot SMEs… are very reluctant to adopt formal CSR policies due to a perceived risk of increased company costs (without tangible financial profits).” In other words, Cypriot firms are still to be convinced that CSR is an investment and not merely a cost. Time will tell whether new generation of workers, now coming to the market, will be able to shift this perspective.
INTERNET OF…
With the increasing mass of devices connected to the internet, from smartwatches to surveillance systems to home appliances, it is clear that the Internet of Things (IoT) is no longer a futuristic idea but a reality. Even in Cyprus, which is not particularly known as a technologically advanced country, there are intentions for smart cities and real-time integrated infrastructure in the public sector, healthcare, transportation, and other fields.
What comes next is the Internet of Behaviours (IoB). A build-up on the IoT, this next stage is about using the "digital dust" of data coming from all those connected "things" and turning it into information used to influence our everyday behaviours in both digital and physical world.
These data come from an abundance of sources, e.g. commercial customer data; citizen data processed by publicsector and government agencies; social media; facial recognition; location tracking, etc. A smartphone is an ideal tool to track the user’s both online and offline activities. To brands, this gives information about one’s interests, dislikes, political preferences, and purchasing patterns, i.e. the in-depth, personalised understanding of their clients whose future behaviour they will be able to predict or, in fact, influence.
According to Gartner, by 2023 individual activities of 40% of the global population will be tracked digitally in order to influence behaviours, and by 2026, over 50% of the world’s population will be exposed to at least one IoB programme, whether that comes from the government, or a private company.
All these raise some very serious questions about user privacy and cybersecurity. The IoB approach, interconnecting personal data with decision-making, demands change of mostly pre-digital cultural and legal norms, and governments around the world only begin to look into these matters.
To be continued
Sources: forbes.com, hrtrendinstitute.com, gtm-plus.com, cyprus-mail.com, bloombergquint.com, financialmirror.com, finch.com, nnip.com, unctad.org, oecd-ilibrary.org, globalwebindex.com, contactpigeon.com, virtualreality-news.net, eiu.com, statcdn.com, ec.europa.eu, www3.weforum.org, www.pwc.com.cy, zdnet.com, financesonline.com, rise.org.cy, dgepcd.gov.cy, bbc.com, enterprisesurveys.org, classeditori.it
Successful Business talks to Point Nine, a company that focuses on providing trade and transaction reporting services to legal entities across the globe. With offices in Cyprus and London, Point Nine collaborates with both buy-side and sell-side financial firms, service providers, and corporations to help them ensure high quality and accurate reporting to remain compliant. We speak with Andreas Roussos (pictured), Theo Mallas, and Christina Barbash about the today and tomorrow of Regulatory Technology, known as RegTech, and the challenges and solutions in a complex environment of multi-reporting to local and EU regulators.
The compliance burden on companies increases every year. What are the fields of compliance that could be managed by special software instead of human operators? Are there any complicated, timeconsuming processes that could be easily replaced by RegTech?
There is no single reporting regime that can be done only by humans. You need at least a good knowledge of Excel, but the problem is multilayered. Let me introduce the market outlook. The compliance market is huge and involves pharmaceutical companies that work on vaccines, companies that manufacture arms, explosives, airplanes. In these cases, we have healthcare regulations, regulations in security. But let’s focus on financial services.
There have been many examples in the financial service sector when regulators tried to figure out what was happening exactly at any given time. The year of 2008 is the best example of all. During the crisis, several banks were on the brink of collapse. The regulators, that is, the governments, had to make a choice – whether to use people’s money to save those banks. However, no one considered what was going to happen if the bank collapsed. They had no idea about outstanding trades and if there was going to be a systemic risk. At the same time, financial markets were never transparent enough for an average person to invest. We always had a problem with transparency, with regulators getting accurate and timely data to better understand and control the environment.
Besides all that, there were many cases of fraud. We also saw problems with clearly identifying the source and destination of incoming and outgoing funds. Whether you are one of the biggest banks in the world or a small broker in Cyprus, more or less you have to report the same data. The number one problem organisations have is internal, where they need to answer a number of questions. Do we have all necessary data? Where do we store these data? Can we correctly interpret the data according to all the requirements?
There is also the external part. You need to send all those data in a correct format to various regulators. We live in a free-trade world, where entities can be established all over Europe, for example. The problem with Europe is that you have European regulators and local regulators. Usually, they don’t have the same goals; they should, but they don’t.
Companies that are in the financial services have approximately 16,000 data fields they need to complete. Much reporting relies not only on the company itself but also on the entities this company trades with. You also have reporting that entails accounting principles, taxation, money laundering, monitoring of trading transactions, and the list goes on. That’s why we witness the rise of RegTech, which derived from FinTech.
Companies should also work on understanding internal data completely. It doesn’t really matter how good your technology is, if the input of data is inaccurate. In that case, the output is inaccurate as well. Take simple data entering in Excel, for example. One may be excellent in Excel, but if wrong data are inserted, the calculations will be wrong.
We live in a complex environment; it is essential for the regulators to be able to tell average people that it is safe to put their money in pension funds, invest in a stock exchange. People need to know that their money is safe and no one is going to deceive them. Are we close to that? No. It is a relatively new market, the institutions have had their own data and internal software that was never built to carry the reporting in these volumes. We have a regulatory reporting business to become the future.
You have mentioned one very important aspect, that technological progress should be seen not only from the company’s position but also from the government's. What if reporting is being done, but there is not enough capacity to analyse all those data?
That’s also one of the main issues. Two years ago, Mark Carney, a former governor of the Bank of England gave a speech saying, if I recall correctly, that £8 billion pounds in the U.K. banking sector was lost just because the reporting was not efficient. By the time regulators receive all that vast amount of data, process and analyse it, make their partial conclusion, they have to ask for more data.
Regulations impose on entities the obligations to submit reports continuously: daily, monthly, quarterly, semiannually, annually. The regulated entities in any sector need to make these data available and regulators should have access to inspect them. The daily checks or prescheduled checks don’t allow them to be flexible and this is the biggest problem. There are the data stored and protected within the company; the data needed by third parties; and the data from service providers. Moreover, for the same entity, you can have 2-3 regulators. Basically, you have the same data stored for years in several different infrastructures which is unproductive, since you asked.
Would you say that the future for Fintech is to give limited access to the regulator so they can access companies if necessary?
If you ask me, it would make everyone’s life easier and it would be more efficient. The problem is that this industry is changing too fast. It is a very difficult task to achieve unless there is a coordinated effort from all stakeholders. A typical entity, a bank, might have data in 20-30 different internal solutions, databases, software. Such change requires planning and time to be put in effect.
What is your outlook for 2021? What are the inevitable changes to be implemented in the financial regulation industry?
The pandemic has changed everything. If you are in the financial sector, if you are a regulated entity, you have people that need to work under specific rules, in the specific environment. Now all these people work from home. I think the pandemic will shift everything towards work-fromhome; I see more of a “bring your own device” trend, and we also need to see adjustments in regulations. We will not go back to how we were, even with vaccines. I expect adjustments in the regulations, but I believe the changes will take place slowly.
HOW THE CYPRIOT-BASED FINTECH FIRM, POINT NINE, GREW IN 2020 AMIDST THE PANDEMIC AND WHAT WE CAN LEARN FROM THEM
Andreas Roussos, Partner, Christina Barbash, Business Development Manager, Theo Mallas, Head of Marketing & Corporate Culture. Photo: Successful Business
1. Tell us about Point Nine.
In its essence, Point Nine is a data processing and management firm. Our proprietary solution is designed to collect information from different sources, process, and create a report that contains all information needed and presented in the format demanded by the European Securities and Markets Authorities and National Competency Authorities. In sim Corporate Culture - ple terms, we help financial institutions remain compliant and transparent to the law they belong to. Aside from the quality of our service/ product, Point Nine aims to become a driving force of market change and reform. Our team is our strength. We are proud of our team’s industry knowledge and are committed to keeping up with the latest changes in regulations. We are smart, fun, and driven, however, we also take our community involvement and responsibility seriously.
2. Has Point Nine been affected by the Pandemic?
We are fortunate to have not been affected by the pandemic performancewise. In fact, we’ve seen a double-digit growth in terms of client acquisition to date and nearly doubled our team in 2020 amidst the pandemic.
3. That is an impressive growth considering the circumstances. What were your actions leading to such growth?
Well, at times of chaos and uncertainty, it is important to safeguard the business and focus on ethically growing it under those circumstances one has no control over. In our case, as a tech company and cloud-based, we’ve always had a flexible approach to working remotely as we have team members across Europe, and our line of work requires little to zero physical interaction, therefore we were not affected by the measures taken by the local government. However, we did have to comfort our clients that their data were protected, and the workload sustained as usual.
In regard to growing our clientele, we revisited our roots, our core values and the value we bring to our clients. With such focus, we turned to digital communication platforms with an updated messaging focusing on the value we bring to customers and kept the messages targeted.
This approach helped us look internally and focus on not only supporting the team’s safety and the safety of their loved ones but also maintaining their overall well-being. We established weekly group calls merely for social engagement and chats not related to work while the local team arranged off-site activities such as dinners and other bonding experiences offering each other support.
4. What distinguishes Point Nine from its competitors?
What makes Point Nine stand out from its competitors is our ability to access data from various systems, including customers’ in-house solutions. Our architecture has an automated way of fetching, receiving, or submitting enriched data while helping the increased accuracy testing, performing advanced regulatory reconciliations, testing reference data, and having a proper control framework.
Regulators demand that financial firms, service providers, and corporations submit timely and accurate data to trade repositories, approved reporting mechanisms and national competent authorities.
Point Nine in-house technology is a scalable regulatory solution utilised by many firms: Point Nine have processed and reported more than 4.5 billion reports. The company has a team of industry experts that specialises in regulatory reporting, equipped with proprietary cloud-based technology.
Point Nine technology is designed to help firms successfully meet their regulatory reporting requirements and remain compliant with: EMIR, MiFID ll, MiFIR, SFTR, FinfraG, ASIC, MAS.
KEY LEARNINGS:
Prioritise authentic, transparent communication with clients and employees.
Go digital with a fine-tuned message.
Reassure your clients.
Additional measures to help Cyprus health system become more efficient, impactful and in line with best practices from leading health systems across the world.
It has been over eight months now since Covid-19 first appeared in Cyprus, shaping a new reality and transforming the way we conduct our lives and businesses. Practical measures for our health system should help manage health crises and future Covid-19 waves in a more decisive, planned and controlled manner.
• Building surge capacity and ensuring better use of available hospital capacity • Re-designing the role of the retail pharmacy
• Using proven health technologies and analytics to identify and support Covid-19 patients and population at risk
• Enabling and reinforcing the role of the Ministry of Health’s public health team.
Covid-19 is a major challenge to our health system but also presents a unique opportunity for our policymakers to address structural or entrenched challenges and create the healthcare sector of tomorrow.
Looking beyond the hospital to the social determinants of health
The accelerated rise of chronic conditions and their heavy socioeconomic burden have been shifting the sector’s emphasis from treatment in the short term to prevention and management. It is imperative to recognise that disease prevention, management and well-being extend beyond the hospital: social determinants such as education, mental health, income, nutrition lifestyle, and housing all have a major impact on health outcomes. Accordingly, health should be defined in a broader term by including these social determinants in the care continuum and hence – in line with the first point above – the emphasis should be on increasing collaboration across all health stakeholders.
Various health systems have already moved into this direction and could serve as inspiration to newly formed systems such as the General Health System. For example, in the US many health organisations are adding nutritionists, behavioural health specialists, social workers, and community workers to their care teams alongside doctors. According to a recent PwC HRI study, extended care teams that include nutritionists and social and community health workers could save the system $1.2 million for every 10,000 patients served (PwC HRI, ROI for primary care: Building the dream team, Oct 2016).
Safeguarding the viability of GHS, protecting against system abuse and preserving clinical quality
One of the biggest challenges of the still-infant GHS is to continue to evolve its control mechanisms to: (a) detect & prevent abuse of the system and (b) preserve the quality of services provision so that to ensure viability of the system. To minimise abuse and errors, the Health Insurance Organisation (HIO) could invest in data analytics to be able to detect suspicious activity patterns including doctor referral patterns. Also, the organisation could carry out clinical audits and ‘mystery patient’ exercises aimed at GHS providers and implement harsh penalties for any doctors abusing the system. Acting now while the GHS is still in its infancy is important in order to encourage the right behaviours and develop the appropriate culture of respect to the system by all participants.
In order to preserve the quality of services provision, in line with international best practices, an independent organisation would need to set up quality standards, clinical protocols, KPIs, and follow an ongoing process of monitoring and measuring all GHS providers against these indicators. Measuring quality in the context of health is not an easy thing to do. Following the Donabedian model (also used by NICE UK), the measures used to assess and compare the quality of healthcare providers are classified as either:
1) a structure measure (the environment or setting, e.g. ratio of patients to doctors);
2) a process measure (the activity carried out, e.g. the share of people with diabetes who had their blood sugar tested and controlled), or
3) an outcome measure (the end result or impact, e.g. surgical mortality rates, readmissions, infections, etc.). For a comprehensive and detailed assessment of the quality of health services, all dimensions of care need to be evaluated.
Continue to invest in skills and infrastructure to strengthen and differentiate our health product and promote it in the global market
To be able to make our health product more competitive on an international stage and also serve the patients in the best possible way, our policymakers need to provide the right incentives to secure a steady supply of high-calibre skills and staff. For instance, in Cyprus we have a shortage of nurses - 5.2 per 1,000 people vs 8.4 in the EU, while the ratio of 1.5 nurses for every doctor was among the lowest in the EU (State of Health report on Cyprus, OECD, 2017). Enhancing the role of nurses, introducing specialisation and reimbursement levels which will be based on experience and academic qualifications, creating more nursing courses at local universities, offering access to quality training to nurses and linking it to the renewal of their nursing licence, introducing a consistent evaluation framework are all means of securing a steady supply of knowledge nurses.
Creating a strong brand for clinical quality and ensuring that Cyprus has a ready supply of highcalibre staff, alone are not enough to make our health product competitive. For Cyprus to become a competitive destination for medical tourism in relation to certain suitable specialties (e.g. rehabilitation, general surgery, bariatric, plastic surgery, etc.), the state should also take a leading role in putting in place the right enabling infrastructure. For instance, offering certain financial/tax incentives to foreign doctors, actively promoting the Cyprus health sector internationally, forming strategic partnerships with international medical concierge and tour-operator companies, investing in business relationships with targeted leading university hospitals, and subsidising flights to create better connectivity would all help strengthen our competitive position abroad.
Using technology to achieve financial efficiencies and provide better care
Virtual care solutions can help improve outcomes and reduce costs, expand access to services especially for remote populations, improve utilisation management and radically promote preventive and chronic disease management. Globally, consumers are starting to adopt virtual health – with 16% of global consumers surveyed already owning a wearable device that monitors their health continuously in real time, and 31% planning to own one (PwC Global: Total Retail Survey, 2017). Wi-Fi-enabled scales, mobile apps for chronic disease monitoring, and wireless biometric sensors mean that care has become more proactive and is no longer tied to the hospital or to the physician’s office.
It would be easy for the GHS, being a single-payer system, to work out reimbursement rates for specific approved virtual health solutions based on the current fee-for-service catalogue. Alternatively, the MoH could fund and provide – through partnerships with established global tech providers – virtual health initiatives for targeted chronic conditions. For instance, Netherlands-based Royal Philips partnered with Changi General Hospital in Singapore to help patients manage their heart conditions at home. Patients were given a weight scale and a blood pressure monitor to check their weight, pulse and blood pressure readings daily. A personal tablet wirelessly captured the readings and uploaded them to a central monitoring system. Nurses remotely monitored patients and intervened when care was needed. After one year of the pilot programme, the length of stay for heart failure-related admissions was reduced by 67% and the total cost of related care dropped by 42% (PwC HRI, Global top health industry issues: Defining the healthcare of the future, 2018).
Кабинет Министров 13 января одобрил меры по поддержке арендаторов, среди которых рассрочка и отмена арендной платы для компаний и самозанятых, а также налоговые льготы для арендодателей.
Двухмесячная отмена платежей
Распространяется на январь-февраль или февраль-март (в тех случаях, когда аренда за январь уже внесена). Арендатор, например, компания или самозанятый, приостановившие свою деятельность из-за карантина, может за этот период оплатить только 30% аренды. Остальные 70% оплаты необходимо будет распределить на период до февраля 2022 года.
Отмена оплаты аренды правительственных помещений
Частные арендаторы, снимающие помещения у государства или полугосударственных организаций, полностью освобождаются от арендной платы.
Налоговые льготы для арендодателей
Для арендодателей, которые на 30-50% снижают оплату своим арендаторам (как физическим, так и юридическим лицам) на период с января по март, будет действовать льгота на подоходный налог. Владелец недвижимости также будет освобождаться от взносов на оборону на тот период, на который он снизит арендную плату.
В конце 2020 года Кипр неожиданно оказался фигурантом публикуемого каждый год списка шокирующих прогнозов от датского Saxo Bank. Согласно ему в 2021 году Amazon «приобретет» Кипр, а точнее из-за растущей неприязни чиновников перенесет свою европейскую штаб-квартиру на остров и буквально «купит политическую власть на всех уровнях» в этой стране».
Несмотря на то, что иногда прогнозы банка сбываются (так, например, Дональд Трамп действительно не был переизбран на второй срок), в целом, декабрьские прогнозы относятся к жанру «финансисты шутят». Однако нам необходимо планировать жизнь и бизнес на острове, исходя из более вероятных перспектив. К счастью, в текущей ситуации уже можно сделать несколько более или менее разумных предположений о развитии событий на Кипре в 2021 году.
Экономический рост
По последним данным, падение ВВП Кипра в 2020 году составило более 6%, что характерно для всех стран с высокой долей сферы услуг в экономике. Однако экономики подобного типа и восстанавливаются достаточно быстро - сфера услуг в основном состоит из компаний сегмента МСП, которые демонстрируют больше гибкости, чем крупные игроки (ресторан или автопрокат, в отличие от фабрики можно легко закрыть и вновь открыть). Международное рейтинговое агентство Standard & Poor’s (S&P) прогнозирует рост ВВП страны на 5,5% в 2021 году. Докризисные показатели, согласно этому прогнозу, будут достигнуты не раньше 2022 года, однако в целом можно ожидать нормализацию и выход на устойчивую оптимистическую траекторию с третьего квартала 2021 года.
Туристический поток
Роль туризма в экономике острова традиционно высока. В предыдущее десятилетие Кипр делал ставку на организованный туризм, что позволило стране поступательно развивать этот сегмент и в 2019 году принять рекордные 3,98 млн туристов. В 2020 году, однако, закрытие сразу двух основных стран-поставщиков туристов на остров - Великобритании и России привело к падению турпотока более чем на 80%. Правительство Кипра предпринимает гигантские усилия по спасению сезона 2021, в частности, с 1 марта восстанавливается полноценное авиасообщение с Россией, анонсированы планы по ПЦР-тестированию туристов сразу по прилете в аэропортах (что уже успешно реализовано в таких незакрывшихся центрах туризма как Дубаи) и так далее. Исходя из того, что страна просто не может позволить себе прожить второй год без приезжих, а механизмы безопасного массового туризма в условиях пандемии в мире уже разработаны, можно предположить, что в 2021 году отрасль в существенной мере отыграет падение прошлого года.
Паспортная программа
В 2020 году чиновники Евросоюза радостно потирали руки - после скандального расследования катарского канала Al Jazeera у правительства Кипра не осталось выбора, кроме как демонстративно закрыть программу по предоставлению «золотых паспортов» (правда, оставив «горячим» клиентам несколько недель на то, чтобы успеть официально начать процедуру). Несмотря на то, что это событие стало неожиданностью для участников рынка, он не было неожиданным в принципе. ЕС давно и на разных уровнях противодействовал «карибской» (то есть без требований по натурализации) форме предоставления паспортов за инвестиции Мальтой и Кипром.
Если рассматривать кипрскую инвестиционную программу как проект, который изначально был рассчитан на ограниченный промежуток времени, то можно только аплодировать властям острова, которые одновременно восстановили имидж страны в глазах международных инвесторов, поддержали рынок недвижимости, привлекли в страну не менее 7 млрд евро и, пусть и частично, но привязали к Кипру и его экономике несколько тысяч мультимиллионеров и нескольких миллиардеров. Последний фактор по своим долгосрочным последствиям вполне может перекрыть все остальные, так как обеспеченный человек с кипрскими паспортом, недвижимостью и финансовыми активами неизбежно перенесет часть своих жизненных интересов, а следовательно и расходов и инвестиций на свою новую «вторую родину».
Цены на недвижимость
Пандемия серьезно ударила по зарубежному спросу на кипрскую недвижимость эконом-сегмента, а отмена паспортной программы поразила сегмент бизнес-класса и объектов класса «люкс». Несмотря на то, что индикаторы показывают снижение цен всего на 3-4% (правда, впервые с 2014 года), основная «переоценка» произойдет в 2021 году и будет напрямую связана с будущим паспортной программы. Если оправдаются оптимистические прогнозы застройщиков и иммиграционных юристов, и страна восстановит программу «золотых паспортов» старого формата, то цены останутся на текущем уровне или даже незначительно вырастут.
Однако более вероятным представляется сценарий, при котором правительство предпочтет не раздражать Евросоюз и в лучшем случае адаптирует уже действующую программу по предоставлению ПМЖ. В этом случае Кипр лишится своего главного конкурентного преимущества - простоты в получении паспорта - и вынужден будет соперничать с такими традиционно сильными конкурентами как Греция, Португалия, Испания и пр., не говоря уже о ворвавшейся на паспортный рынок в 2019 году Черногории. В этом случае рынок дорогой недвижимости ждет затяжное снижение, рынок недвижимости эконом-сегмента - в лучшем случае, стагнация.
В заключение напомним, что несмотря на все успехи последних лет, Кипр вместе с Испанией и Италией входит в тройку стран ЕС, где недвижимость сегодня стоит дешевле, чем 10 лет назад, что делает местный рынок привлекательным для умного и расчетливого инвестора.
Стабильность финансовой системы
Хотя с 2013 года утекло немало воды, призрак банковского кризиса все еще будоражит клиентов кипрских финансовых институтов. Этому немало способствуют слабые финансовые результаты крупнейшего финансового холдинга страны - Bank of Cyprus. Однако от операционной убыточности крупного банка до его банкротства лежит довольно долгий путь, неважно себя чувствует большинство банков Европы, а чиновники в Никосии и Брюсселе, хочется надеяться, умеют учиться на своих ошибках. Исходя из этого, а также из продемонстрированной в 2020 году готовность ЕЦБ печатать деньги «до победного конца» (то есть до преодоления кризисных явлений в экономике), можно предположить, что 2021 год Кипр пройдет без сюрпризов в финансовой сфере.
Внешняя политика
К сожалению, геополитическая ситуация вокруг острова медленно, но неуклонно ухудшается. Спор вокруг морских газовых месторождений, который уже привел в 2020 году к демонстрации военной силы флотами Турции и ряда стран ЕС, не только не решен, но и вовлекает в свои ряды новых участников (в частности, Ливию и Египет). Кроме того, сохранявшийся в первые годы после референдума по плану Аннана в обществе и элите «ТРСК» консенсус в пользу объединения острова и вывода турецких войск полностью разрушен - в настоящий момент националистическая Партия национального единства контролирует и «парламент» и пост «президента». Выигравший выборы в конце 2020 года Эрсин Татар является убежденным сторонником формулы «два государства, два народа», а для стоящей за ПНЕ Анкарой объединение больше не является разменной монетой в переговорах с ЕС (Турция больше в него не стремится). Демонстративное открытие для посещения Вароши наряду с газовыми маневрами Турции делает международную обстановку вокруг Кипра в 2021 году довольно нервной, хотя перспектива серьезного обострения кажется маловероятной.
Отмена локдауна и эпидемиологическая ситуация
Несмотря на то, что здесь делать прогноз приходится на фоне самых жестких ограничений с марта-апреля 2020 года, есть несколько поводов для оптимизма. Во-первых, локдауны работают - пример тому мы можем видеть в Китае, который, как представляется, уже справился с пандемией. Во-вторых, в мире разработано, оттестировано и запущено в массовое производство свыше десятка вакцин, которые неизбежно переломят ситуацию. Ну и наконец, существует история прошлых крупных вирусных пандемий (в частности, «испанки» или «гонконгского гриппа»), которые естественным образом проходили в три волны с пиком во вторую и существенным снижением числа заболевших к третьей. Исходя из этого можно предположить, что после лишений первого квартала и последним всплеском заболевания во втором к середине года пандемия, в целом, завершится.
Стоит ли говорить о том, что любые прогнозы делаются на базе прошлого опыта и жизнь обязательно внесет свои коррективы? Исходя из того, как много немыслимого случилось с нами в 2020 году, хочется пожелать всем максимальной предсказуемости в 2021-м. Но на всякий случай, будем присматриваться к новостям из европейской штаб-квартиры Amazon.
Алексей Тараповский
Международный финансовый советник, основатель Anderida Financial Group (лицензия на инвестиционное консультирование Банка России N63), автор бестселлера «Я выбираю богатство».
Бюджет на этот год, который стал настоящим камнем преткновения, сформирован и скоро будет обсуждаться в парламенте. Он увеличился на 339 912 290 евро, из которых 220 млн - средства на борьбу с пандемией.
Об этом в своем официальном послании председателю парламента сообщил министр финансов Константинос Петридис. В нем он передал парламенту просьбу главы государства принять бюджет и среднесрочную финансово-экономическую рамочную стратегию на 2021-2023 года как можно скорее. «Это позволит государству работать в особенно сложных условиях, созданных пандемией, а также поддержать трудящихся и компании», — пишет Петридис. Глава Минфина подчеркнул, что в бюджет внесены поправки на основании предложений политических партий.
Что касается мер по борьбе с пандемией, то из 220 млн, прописанных в бюджете, 200 млн пойдут на поддержку предприятий и самозанятых, 20 млн необходимы для стимуляции экономики. Среди предложений политических партий, внесенных в бюджет, глава Минфина назвал помощь соседнему Ливану в размере 4,25 млн евро и сокращение на 10%, то есть на 21 374 265 евро, расходов на услуги консультантов, операционные расходы министерств и повышение квалификации.
Работники жду своих пособий с ноября
Тем временем, сотрудники торговых центров обратились к кипрским СМИ с жалобами. Они утверждают, что до сих пор не получили пособие за ноябрь, поэтому их семьи остались без средств к существованию.
Генеральный секретарь Кипрской ассоциации розничной торговли Мариос Антониу подтвердил, что проблема существует. Есть довольно большая группа сотрудников, которые не получили пособия за ноябрь и декабрь. По словам Антониу, это происходит из-за того, что до сих пор не принят бюджет на 2021 год. «С того момента, как бюджет был отклонен, все пособия задерживаются», — говорит он, добавляя, что, согласно принятой схеме, Минтруда перечисляет средства на пособия работодателям, а те распределяют их между сотрудниками. Антониу призвал парламент и политические партии осознать всю сложность ситуации. «У нас есть случаи, когда работодатели вынуждены брать кредит в банке, чтобы расплатиться с работниками накануне Рождества», — рассказывает глава ассоциации. То же самое касается и принятых правительством планов финансовой помощи на январь. Чтобы деньги были выплачены, необходимо, чтобы был принят бюджет. Более того, в сложившихся обстоятельствах вполне может возникнуть ситуация, когда просто некому будет помогать, так как множество компаний находятся на грани закрытия. «Мы постоянно говорим о том, что необходимы целевые меры финансовой поддержки компаний, чтобы они могли покрыть свои расходы, будь то аренда или операционные затраты», — говорит Антониу.
Скидки на аренду и мораторий на кредитные выплаты
В ответ на вопрос о том, готовы ли арендодатели идти навстречу арендаторам и снижать плату, Антониу отвечает, что такое случается, но очень редко. «Мы не сталкивались с тем, чтобы арендодатели снижали арендную плату или чтобы они пользовались теми налоговыми льготами, которые были им предоставлены в прошлом году. Единственное, что происходит, это увеличение периода выплаты задолженности и, в некоторых случаях, небольшие кратковременные снижения аренды, как это было в период первого карантина», — говорит Антониу. Такой же критике он подверг продление моратория на кредитные выплаты, так как право на него имеют только те, кто не полностью воспользовался мораторием в 2020 году, то есть вместо девяти месяцев не платил по кредиту меньший период времени. «Подавляющее большинство компаний розничной торговли пользовалось мораторием на протяжении всех девяти месяцев, поэтому с января они должны начать выплачивать займы. Как это смогут делать закрытые предприятия без оборота?», — задается вопросом глава ассоциации.
Кипр наравне с Португалией, Грецией, Мальтой, Испанией и Италией пострадает от сокращения туристических потоков. А вместе с Испанией, Италией, Францией и Грецией остров рискует столкнуться с банкротством малого бизнеса и ростом безработицы. Эти выводы содержатся в исследовании экономической ситуации в Еврозоне под названием «Негативные перспективы 2021 года, вызванные высокой экономической и финансовой неопределенностью», проведенном международным рейтинговым агентством Moody’s.
Рейтинговое агентство также предупреждает об опасности, которую таит в себе отказ от государственных субсидий до начала реального улучшения ситуации. С другой стороны, если меры господдержки продлятся слишком долго, это может замедлить рост экономики в отдельно взятых секторах и увеличить количество так называемых компаний-зомби (то есть фирм, требующих постоянных финансовых вливаний для продолжения деятельности). «Этот риск актуален для тех стран, которые реализуют щедрые программы поддержки занятости, как Голландия, Германия и Франция», — сказано в исследовании.
Также агентство Moody’s предупреждает Кипр, Италию, Испанию, Португалию, Францию и Бельгию о кредитных рисках. Очевидно, что страны с большим госдолгом еще до пандемии сталкивались с препятствиями для роста экономики, считают эксперты. В такой ситуации малым экономикам типа кипрской будет немного проще, чем крупным. Важных финансово-экономических последствий пандемии стоит ждать во второй половине 2021 года, заключают исследователи.
Карантин всерьез может ударить по 25 000 предприятиям малого и среднего бизнеса и по 100 000 сотрудников. Несомненно, самый сильный удар от нынешних мер придется на сектор розничной торговли. На Кипре оптово-розничная торговля это самый крупный сектор по объему добавленной стоимости — 1,948 млрд евро в 2017 году, и по занятости (в секторе работают 67 471 сотрудников или 16,6% всей рабочей силы страны). В розничной торговле трудятся 38 303 человека или 9,4% всех работающих на Кипре жителей и действуют 9 438 компаний. Доля государственных доходов от розничной торговли составляет 12%. Для сравнения, в секторе гостиничного и ресторанного бизнеса заняты 47 134 человека, это второй по размерам сектор экономики. В отелях острова работают 21 659 человек. В ресторанном бизнесе заняты 25 475 человек.
Тем временем
Представители предпринимательского сообщества написали открытое письмо президенту Никосу Анастасиадису. В нем они попросили увеличить число сотрудников, которым разрешено физически присутствовать на рабочем месте, с 15% до 25%, а также отменить максимальный лимит в 20 человек.
Письмо подписали руководители Федерации работодателей и промышленников, Торгово-промышленной палаты Кипра, Ассоциации сертифицированных бухгалтеров и Кипрской судоходной палаты. Они утверждают, что 25% рабочей силы — это тот минимум, который необходим для нормального продолжения работы предприятий. «Мы отчаянно призываем вас одобрить физическое присутствие на каждом предприятии до 25% сотрудников, не устанавливая максимального количества. Это минимальный процент, который может обеспечить удовлетворительную работу пострадавших объектов. Строгое выполнение протоколов будет гарантировать эффективность антивирусных мер на рабочем месте», — сказано в письме. Авторы письма приводят в пример Грецию, где разрешенное количество работников составляет 50%.
2021 is the year to expect the unexpected. While many trends of the previous years will continue, their path may deviate pressured by unpredicted developments that Covid-19 is causing on the global markets. Let’s have a look at what role vaccine rollouts will be playing in the year ahead, how technology will keep on evolving, and why the new ‘remote’ life will be driving the changes.
VACCINE ECONOMY
The key factor defining how life will be through 2021 is the vaccination against Covid-19. Mass inoculation is, for the time being, the only realistic mean to reduce the need for job- and businessdestroying lockdowns. Led by the UK, the US, Russia and China, the countries around the world are gradually starting their vaccination programmes, but the logistics and distribution remain challenging, especially in remote areas and in low- and middle-income settings.
According to a World Bank Group survey in June 2020, most Cypriot companies did not expect to be hiring their full staff back in the next nine months; now this prospect has been pushed even further into the future. Since the start of a vaccination programme, Cyprus, as well as the majority of the European countries, will need at least six months to see some signs of recovery. The forecasts are that industry will lead the growth, followed by the financial sector. Consumption, on the other hand, will be picking up slower than other sectors, which may inhibit overcoming the economic slowdown.
The EU is likely to have vaccinated 50% of the population no earlier than by May, and may have reached the 70% mark by autumn – assuming that people en masse are convinced about vaccines’ effectiveness and safety, and agree to a jab. This dynamics is important for Cyprus, as a large part of its economy depends on tourism. The country needs people coming from abroad, especially from the EU and the UK, to support local business, but it also needs to protect its population from the disease.
For Cyprus, there is a vaccination programme in place since the end of 2020. As of December 2020, the country ordered around 1.8 million doses, from Oxford/ AstraZeneca, Pfizer/BioNTech and Johnson & Johnson’s Janssen. Negotiations are underway with Sanofi/GSK, Curevac and Moderna. While securing the delivery of the vaccines is an important step, managing the programme will be a challenge for the government in terms of organising the locations for administration, preparing medical staff, launching the necessary IT infrastructure, etc.
According to OECD, if a vaccine is deployed fast, this would boost confidence, spending, and the global GDP growth in 2022. If vaccination proves challenging, the containment measures would be prolonged and uncertainty would deepen. This would further raise the risk of bankruptcies and job losses, limit consumer spending and business investment. Substantial repricing could occur in financial markets, reflecting greater risk aversion. This would weaken global growth, particularly in 2021.
A vaccine has never arrived in the middle of a pandemic before, so there is no historical data for solid predictions. One can be sure, however, that any economic indicators as well as asset prices are tightly linked with either success or failure of the vaccination programme. Any kind of deviation or setback poses a risk of a quick downside for stock markets and house prices.
To be continued
As the first international IT company to come to Cyprus, NCR has offered technological solutions to local companies and the Government of Cyprus for the last 65 years. Successful Business Magazine discusses today’s challenges and future changes in the IT world with Kyriakos Kyriakou, NCR’s general manager.
NCR is one of the oldest Cyprus companies with the newest technologies. What was the initial reason to create the regional Cyprus office in 1955?
When NCR decided to open operations in Cyprus, Cyprus did not have any IT companies. Everything was on paper – we did not have any computers. This is why we feel proud as a company to have been the ones who created the ICT business in Cyprus. The interest of NCR was to target the local market. NCR was expanding in other regions and Cyprus came to its trajectory. Do not forget that in 1955 Cyprus was under British command as a British colony. Therefore, one can say that NCR in Cyprus is older than the Republic of Cyprus itself, as the island gained its independence in 1960.
We are used to thinking that IT is something modern. What could NCR have sold as its services or products 60 years ago?
At first, NCR started selling cash registers for retailers. This was our main business at the time. As mentioned before, we did not have computers back then, so retail cash registers were mechanical machines. Cash registers had been the product that founded NCR as a business. This is what our name stands for – National Cash Registers. Gradually it evolved and has been known for many decades now as NCR. We had many innovations and inventions through the years, one of which is the first receipt printer. NCR was the first company to promote and sell such a solution. In fact, today this is mandatory in the retail sector around the globe. The first NCR printer did not have ink, it was still a mechanical machine punching on paper to produce the printout. Nothing similar to what we know today with the evolution of technology and digitalisation.
That is amazing. Soon you will be able to create a museum celebrating the achievements of NCR!
NCR has plenty of museums around the globe in its own premises. We also have one in our new headquarters in Atlanta, Georgia. Many customers have their own museums and NCR holds its own place in them. Whether this is an old cash register, a server, or PC we used to manufacture, and a series of other technologies that served thousands of customers and consumers around the globe. They all belong to the global history of the ICT industry today. You should know that NCR was founded by John Patterson in 1884. Many of the leading global IT firms that we know today were founded by people who used to work for NCR. Thomas Watson for example was the Sales Manager of NCR, close partner to John Patterson, who later left NCR and founded International Business Machines, what we know today as IBM. Our contribution in shaping the global IT market, and also helping create local IT markets like Cyprus, is something we are really proud of at NCR.
Not only in Cyprus. The NCR Cyprus headquarters is responsible for 60 countries.
That is true. In Cyprus, we have two legal entities. One is responsible for the business in the Middle East and Africa, and the other one for operations in Cyprus. Back in 1986 our office in Cyprus was established as a regional office for the whole of the Middle East and Africa. Cyprus used to be under MEA, but since Cyprus became a European country, it reports to the European regional office, despite the fact that the Cyprus office is also the regional office for Middle East and Africa.
In Cyprus, who are your main clients?
All the banks, the government and administration departments. When I say government, I mean the public sector in general. We also have clients in the retail sector, mainly the big retailers and grocery stores.
I know that when it comes to your clientele, banks play an important role. Is it true that they account for at least half of your clients?
This varies from year to year, but as a general comment I would say banking used to be bigger as a business in the past as a percentage to the rest of the lines of business. Today the situation has changed, with government growing faster for us compared to the rest. Both, however, are equally important to us, including the retail sector which is the smallest between the three.
If we put government aside, then the banking sector is the biggest, isn't it? NCR is number one in the world when it comes to ATM. What is your share in Cyprus?
We have about 91% market share in the local ATM market, taking into account the local ATM network from all the banks operating here in Cyprus, so yes, we are quite successful. I would not say we are the lowest cost vendor in the market. But we believe we are the vendor who combines a good quality of service with relevant reasonable pricing. In other words, partnering with NCR, customers have more value to gain from us than the price they have to pay to partner with us. Overall we are still the best offer out there, and we believe this is the reason for our success.
Other than that, in recent years we have seen NCR gaining an advantage in terms of the design of its products, the quality of the materials used to produce those products, more advanced reliabilityserviceability-maintainability features of the ATMs, but more importantly investments made from acquisitions and in human capital to ensure our leading position in the industry for many years to come. Of course, not just in Cyprus, but around the globe.
To conclude on the topic of banking, I would like to touch on the concept of assisted-service and selfservice technologies. Today, more and more people prefer to interact with their banks using technology, i.e. computers, mobile phones, or ATMs. Is it possible that in the future tellers at branches might not be needed anymore, with customers completely relying on technology?
No, the tellers will not disappear. Let me explain why.
There are three types of customers: the digital natives, the digital immigrants, and the traditional type.
Digital natives are the customers who have been born during the digital age. Their preference is always self-service. In their majority, they are the younger generation who are most likely to choose the digital channels to communicate and interact with the bank.
Digital immigrants are the older generations that, although they have not been born in the digital age, have managed to migrate from the analogue age to the digital one. They are keen to use the self-service channels of a bank. They share similar characteristics as the digital natives, however their origin is what differentiates them.
And finally, we have the traditional type of customers, those who firmly believe they deserve to be served by a person, not a machine. Interestingly, we do not have just one age group in this type. There are young, middle-aged, and older people who fall into this category. As time passes, we do see less of them, but to suggest that such customer type disappears is a bit risky.
Only time can tell what will happen. Today, there is no evidence whatsoever that the traditional type of customers is going to vanish. Banks will need to maintain their branches and tellers for as long as they exist.
What other trends do you see?
Having a look at the retail sector for example, so that banking does not monopolise the discussion, we see a big rise of self-checkout technologies, especially in grocery stores in Europe. If you go to Tesco or Sainsbury's, you will see a line of self-checkout machines that customers can go to, check out all the items in their basket much faster, without having to wait in long queues to pay, and conclude their shopping at the terminal, with no assistance from any employee of the supermarket.
Please don't get the wrong impression. What we are saying is that retail is entering the transformation phase that banks went through decades ago with their digital channels. You can think of self-checkout as the ATM of the banking industry. It is very similar, only in a different industry. They will still not replace the cashiers of the store, but they will give more options to the store’s customers to choose from.
We see the same happening in Cyprus these days, with one of the big grocery stores installing such machines in their stores. We will see how it goes and the success it will have in a market like Cyprus, but overall, in Europe we see a big move towards self-checkout.
Going back to the public sector, what projects have you implemented that facilitate the life of regular people by providing new technology?
NCR has implemented and maintained many government systems through the years. The Treasury department of the government, the Tax Authority system of Cyprus, the Government Payroll System, the Regulator of Insurance Companies, the system for the implementation of the National Health System of Cyprus, and more.
For the second part of the question question, let me give you some examples. Today, every financial transaction that happens within the government goes through systems that NCR has implemented. For the Health System of Cyprus, whether it is a person being treated by a doctor, or a pharmacy dispensing a drug, or a patient seeking help from the call centre, NCR is behind to provide that service and an NCR system executes the transaction. Same goes for the tax systems we implemented for people paying taxes, declaring income, and so on.
At the end of our interview, I would like to ask about technology in general. The 4th Industrial Revolution, what does it mean to you? What progress do you see happening in the next five years?
I come from a company that specialises in self-service. I think that the world and all industries are becoming more selfservice oriented. If you go to a hotel in Europe, you have to register online, get your key through a self-service kiosk, and do much more in self-service. Self-service is increasingly becoming part of our lives. These self-intuitive technologies that we have today in our mobile phones or tablets can be applied in every industry. Let us take Cyprus as an example. Cyprus is the only country that implemented a national health insurance system that is completely paperless. There is not a single paper sent anywhere to process a health care service in Cyprus. Everything is being done electronically. Doctors with limited training could use this system from day one. They could go online, log in, and although they did not know everything they needed to know from day one, they could still find their way in the system to do their job. A week from that first day, they are experts in using this system and would not remember how they operated prior to the system being in place, helping them do their job in a much more organised and structured way.
So, I would say self-service is the future applicable to all industries, having a positive outcome and forcing all industries to transform themselves to survive the demands of the Digital Age; such demands are being prescribed by the end-customers themselves.
NCR Corporation (NYSE: NCR) is the global leader in consumer transaction technologies, turning everyday interactions with businesses into exceptional experiences.
It is headquartered in Duluth, Georgia, Unites States, with approximately 33,000 employees and does business in 170 countries.
With its software, hardware, and portfolio of services, NCR enables more than 485 million transactions daily across retail, financial, travel, hospitality, telecom, and technology industries, and small business.
With its view of more than 485 million transactions around the world each day, NCR is helping its customers respond to the demand for fast, easy and convenient transactions with intuitive self-service and assisted-service options.
What we do goes beyond niche technologies or markets; our solutions run the everyday transactions that make life easier and help businesses around the world increase revenue, build loyalty, reach new customers, and lower their costs of operations.
By continually learning about – and thereafter pioneering means – of how the world interacts and transacts, we help companies not only reach their goals but also change the way all of us shop, eat, travel, bank, and connect.
